Showing posts with label Beware. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beware. Show all posts

Thursday, April 23, 2026

TRENT BTST - No Buy

IF the largest single OI change in the entire chain is put long UNWINDING at a strike well below spot — THEN as a buyer, read this as a capitulation signal, not a floor-building signal. Today's TRENT chain had −1,094 OI change at 4,000 PE — the single biggest number in the whole sheet. Bears who bought puts expecting TRENT to fall to 4,000 gave up and closed their positions in size. This is different from put writing (which is institutional conviction that a level holds). Put long unwinding says: I was wrong, I'm out. When the largest bearish position in a chain exits, it removes a structural weight from the stock. As a buyer, this is a subtle but powerful signal — not because bulls are building, but because the last big seller just left the room. The rule: scan the put side not just for writing (positive OI change) but also for large unwinding (negative OI change). Large put long exits are a secondary bullish signal — they confirm the directional lean but don't drive it alone. Pair it with at least one call-side signal before acting.

INFY - Going nowhere tomorrow

IF fresh call OI builds up at a strike that is less than 1.5% above the current spot price AND put OI builds up symmetrically below spot — THEN as a buyer, you are looking at a pinning setup, not a breakout setup. Today's INFY chain is the textbook example. The 1,260 CE wall is only ₹18 above a ₹1,242 spot — that's 1.4%. When market makers and institutions install a call wall this close to spot, they are explicitly saying: we expect this stock to go nowhere tomorrow. For a buyer, the breakeven on a 1,260 CE (premium ₹24) is ₹1,284 — which is already above the next wall at ₹1,300. You need the stock to blast through two walls just to make money. The rule: distance between spot and the nearest call wall must be at least 2–3% for a call buy to have structural room to breathe. When the wall is closer than 1.5%, the trade is structurally compromised before you even dial the broker. Look at the gap first, then the OI direction.



OFSS - No Buy

IF call short covering dominates the chain above spot AND put writing dominates below spot — but IV is sitting at 1.5x its normal range — THEN as a buyer, the OI structure is telling you the direction, but the IV is telling you the market has already priced in the move. Today's OFSS chain is a masterclass in this trap. Every OI signal screamed bullish: walls cracking at 8,100–8,500, floors being built at 8,500 PE, bears unwinding at 7,000–7,500 PE. Yet IV at 38% on a stock that normally trades 22% means you are buying the most expensive option of the quarter — right before a results event that will collapse IV regardless of outcome. The rule to tattoo in your playbook: OI tells you direction; IV tells you price. You need both to align. When direction is right but price is wrong, you sit out — and wait for IV to revert before buying. Post-results, if OFSS holds above 8,500 and IV drops back to 22–25%, that's the real entry for next week's trade.

TRENT BTST - No Buy

IF the largest single OI change in the entire chain is put long UNWINDING at a strike well below spot — THEN as a buyer, read this as a capi...